In
recent years, the narrative of a “rising Africa” has been embraced by some
and debunked by others. But all agree on what social engineers
call “inclusiveness” – the degree to which members of a society share in
its prosperity.
With it, say the boosters, Africa will rise. Without it,
say the skeptics, it cannot.
Africa’s future really is as simple as that. Without a
sense of social contract – a faith in shared progress – economies tend to
become unstable and fall apart. “No society that hopes to prosper,” writes the economist
Jeffrey Sachs in his book The Price of Civilization, “can afford to leave large
parts of its population stuck in the poverty trap.”
Against this background, a new report by the Society
for International Development (SID) in Nairobi is a sobering read. Its
conclusion: a rising Africa – and in particular a rising East Africa –
will never become a reality without economic progress across
all sectors of society.
Superficially, East Africa appears to be doing well.
Annual economic growth rates are averaging around 6%, and trade and foreign
investment are rising. Some countries, such as Uganda and Tanzania, have large
energy-resource endowments. In Kenya, the region’s largest economy,
finance and new consumer service industries are propelling growth – an
important economic evolution. Look deeper, however, and it is difficult not to
worry. Across the region, the richest are the overwhelming beneficiaries of
economic growth, while the poorest are falling further behind.